ithinkfi Market Trends
The 2026 rate outlook in plain language: where savings yields, auto loan rates, and mortgage costs are heading, and what members should do.
Getting Started with Credit Union: Market Trends
- Average share certificate yields at ithinkfi reached 4.35% APY in Q3 2025, up from 3.10% a year earlier.
- The Federal Reserve's target range sat at 4.25% - 4.50% entering 2026, anchoring deposit pricing across the sector.
- New vehicle prices rose 1.8% in 2025, slowing the pace of auto loan growth.
- Our 2026 member survey shows 62% of savers plan to lock rates into certificates before mid-year.
Deposit rate trends
Deposit yields at ithinkfi climbed for six consecutive quarters through Q3 2025, peaking at 4.35% APY on 12-month share certificates.
The rise tracked the Federal Reserve's holding of its target range at 4.25% - 4.50%. History suggests certificate yields lag Fed moves by 30 to 60 days in both directions, which gives members a brief window to lock before a cut.
| Product | Q3 2024 APY | Q3 2025 APY | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 12-month certificate | 3.10% | 4.35% | +1.25 |
| 24-month certificate | 3.40% | 4.20% | +0.80 |
| Money market | 2.15% | 3.05% | +0.90 |
| Regular savings | 0.50% | 0.75% | +0.25 |
Auto market trends
New vehicle prices rose only 1.8% in 2025, the smallest annual increase since 2019, while used prices fell 3.2%.
Falling used prices are narrowing the gap that made 2023 a terrible year to buy used. Our loan book reflects the shift: used-vehicle loans grew 12% in 2025 while new-vehicle loans grew 4%.
Housing and mortgage outlook
Average 30-year mortgage rates hovered near 6.4% entering 2026, keeping refinance volume at a 15-year low.
Purchase mortgages still dominate our pipeline, at 87% of 2025 originations. Refinancing remains rational only for members holding rates above 7.5%, a small and shrinking group.
What trends do not tell you
National averages do NOT apply evenly to every region; Florida deposit competition has run hotter than the national market since 2023.
Our Delray Beach branches matched competitor certificate specials in four months of 2025 that never appeared in national rate tables. Members outside our footprint should compare local credit unions rather than national averages.
The data does not cover money market funds or brokerage sweep products, which respond to rate moves on a different schedule.
How we gather the numbers
Ithinkfi compiles trend data from its own portfolio, NCUA call reports, and public Fed releases each quarter.
Initially we relied on vendor rate surveys but found their samples lagged reality by weeks, so we moved to primary sources in 2023. Sample size is limited to our own 200,000 members plus aggregate NCUA data, not the entire banking sector.
The quarterly trends note helped our board decide to ladder three certificates instead of one. We locked 4.3% before the dips.
I moved my emergency fund into a 12-month certificate after reading the deposit outlook. Best money decision last year.
Will savings rates go up or down in 2026?
Rates are most likely to drift lower in 2026 if the Fed cuts, but ithinkfi certificate specials will still be repriced monthly.
Is now a good time to open a share certificate?
For savers holding cash, yes: locking a 12-month certificate at current APYs protects income from expected cuts.
Are used car prices still falling?
Yes, used prices fell 3.2% in 2025, and we expect a further 1-2% decline in 2026.
Should I refinance my mortgage in 2026?
Only if your current rate is above 7.5%; at 6.4% average new rates, most members would not benefit.
Where can I see ithinkfi's latest rates?
The monthly rate sheet is published on the pricing page and in every branch.
Acting on 2026 trends
- Check your current yields
Compare your accounts against the Q3 2025 table above.
- Decide on a ladder
Split cash across 6, 12, and 24-month certificates to capture rate moves both ways.
- Revisit auto financing
Used-vehicle pricing favors buyers; get pre-approved before shopping.
- Hold off on refinancing
Unless your mortgage rate exceeds 7.5%, watch the spring Fed decisions first.
Certificate yield climb
The six-quarter climb in certificate yields is the longest stretch of rising deposit returns since 2007.
Members who laddered maturities captured the upside while keeping liquidity, the strategy our advisors recommend for 2026.
Put the trends to work
Lock current certificate yields or compare loan rates before the market moves.
View Current RatesThe official methodology is detailed in the ithinkfi overview.
Oversight standards for this sector are published by www.ncua.gov and www.consumerfinance.gov.